My Vintage Cube Win-Rate for Every Card

vintage cube black lotus

Here is a full list of the cards I played in 152 vintage cube drafts and their recorded win rates. I am only showing cards which saw play in at least 3 leagues (or 9 matches) because there isn’t much significance to a sample size of 1 or 2.

The Min and Max expected win rate columns are calculated by taking the mean win rate and subtracting and adding one standard deviation, respectively. The purpose of this is to create a range of performances for each card since the sample size is still quite small. This also gives the benefit of showing how variable a card’s performance can be, some of the cards even with a large sample size still have relatively high variance which is an important statistic to note.

The columns should be sortable if you click on the heading which can help you navigate this massive data dump. I plan to update this periodically and will make notes here of when I do anything major. In the meantime you can check out the analysis I did for winning and losing two card combos by clicking either of the links.

Name Min Expected Winrate Max Expected Winrate Wins Matches Played
Coalition Relic 56% 65% 29 48
Elves of Deep Shadow 37% 40% 7 18
Fastbond 51% 70% 20 33
Forest 52% 70% 101 165
Garruk Wildspeaker 48% 75% 24 39
Garruk, Primal Hunter 46% 60% 8 15
Grim Monolith 61% 72% 34 51
Heartbeat of Spring 60% 73% 20 30
Island 60% 75% 238 354
Izzet Signet 46% 60% 27 51
Joraga Treespeaker 50% 75% 15 24
Metalworker 49% 64% 22 39
Primal Command 68% 88% 7 9
Primeval Titan 40% 65% 11 21
Search for Tomorrow 42% 67% 18 33
Selesnya Signet 47% 68% 19 33
Sol Ring 44% 53% 16 33
Terastodon 39% 52% 15 33
Thran Dynamo 64% 79% 15 21
Time Spiral 62% 77% 71 102
Timetwister 60% 77% 39 57
Tolarian Academy 71% 83% 30 39
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre 56% 72% 23 36
Walking Ballista 61% 80% 17 24
Woodfall Primus 42% 54% 10 21
Worn Powerstone 53% 62% 19 33
Ancestral Recall 64% 69% 18 27
Baleful Strix 67% 67% 6 9
Bone Shredder 60% 63% 11 18
Chrome Mox 77% 87% 54 66
Dark Confidant 56% 74% 37 57
Fatal Push 53% 58% 5 9
Glen Elendra Archmage 75% 80% 35 45
Hostage Taker 50% 83% 8 12
Hymn to Tourach 73% 82% 28 36
Inquisition of Kozilek 51% 64% 19 33
Karn, Scion of Urza 69% 71% 21 30
Kitesail Freebooter 69% 75% 28 39
Liliana of the Veil 53% 72% 15 24
Lotus Petal 63% 70% 14 21
Mox Diamond 64% 79% 56 78
Mox Emerald 55% 69% 28 45
Pack Rat 60% 73% 14 21
Polluted Delta 51% 64% 19 33
Preordain 65% 77% 32 45
Snapcaster Mage 82% 88% 28 33
Swamp 57% 73% 107 165
Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas 86% 91% 8 9
Thirst for Knowledge 77% 83% 24 30
Toxic Deluge 52% 70% 11 18
Vampiric Tutor 60% 79% 27 39
Banishing Light 81% 86% 15 18
Consecrated Sphinx 73% 84% 33 42
Control Magic 73% 77% 9 12
Counterspell 69% 80% 29 39
Cryptic Command 73% 84% 40 51
Daze 65% 75% 23 33
Dismember 67% 81% 20 27
Fact or Fiction 51% 70% 47 78
Geist of Saint Traft 67% 83% 18 24
Jace, the Mind Sculptor 73% 83% 21 27
Karakas 64% 79% 30 42
Mana Leak 69% 77% 22 30
Maze of Ith 78% 84% 17 21
Monastery Mentor 59% 83% 17 24
Oblivion Ring 82% 88% 23 27
Plains 63% 77% 136 195
Remand 79% 85% 27 33
Shelldock Isle 83% 89% 31 36
Spell Pierce 71% 82% 32 42
Tamiyo, the Moon Sage 67% 83% 9 12
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon 67% 80% 11 15
Vedalken Shackles 72% 75% 11 15
Venser, Shaper Savant 60% 74% 32 48
Ancient Tomb 65% 74% 25 36
Angel of Invention 72% 81% 23 30
Armageddon 55% 69% 37 60
Coercive Portal 58% 75% 26 39
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite 75% 80% 7 9
Gideon Jura 64% 69% 16 24
Leonin Relic-Warder 69% 77% 22 30
Mana Vault 53% 68% 29 48
Memory Jar 60% 73% 50 75
Mind Twist 55% 66% 20 33
Mox Jet 66% 79% 39 54
Phyrexian Metamorph 50% 75% 15 24
Restoration Angel 44% 56% 9 18
Scrubland 54% 68% 22 36
Strip Mine 74% 83% 47 60
Swords to Plowshares 73% 80% 55 72
Thragtusk 75% 80% 7 9
Verdant Catacombs 45% 55% 15 30
Vindicate 75% 80% 7 9
Wall of Omens 60% 63% 11 18
Windswept Heath 70% 81% 34 45
Blightsteel Colossus 61% 73% 22 33
Field of Ruin 67% 83% 9 12
Gush 67% 80% 42 57
Lightning Greaves 67% 80% 11 15
Mana Crypt 60% 73% 28 42
Mindslaver 69% 82% 34 45
Mishra’s Workshop 59% 75% 22 33
Mystical Tutor 50% 77% 38 60
Rakdos Signet 48% 69% 23 39
Rishadan Port 67% 84% 50 66
Smokestack 67% 83% 18 24
Tangle Wire 61% 72% 16 24
Tinker 59% 66% 15 24
Trinket Mage 50% 75% 15 24
Umezawa’s Jitte 69% 80% 38 51
Underground Sea 73% 83% 21 27
Watery Grave 76% 87% 22 27
Wurmcoil Engine 67% 83% 9 12
Azorius Signet 68% 76% 39 54
Day of Judgment 67% 67% 14 21
Force of Will 60% 68% 27 42
Karn Liberated 67% 76% 15 21
Lotus Bloom 59% 76% 65 96
Mana Tithe 77% 83% 36 45
Moat 75% 80% 14 18
Mystic Confluence 65% 75% 23 33
Phantasmal Image 52% 70% 11 18
Sower of Temptation 71% 82% 16 21
Treachery 64% 69% 16 24
Tundra 52% 69% 29 48
Breeding Pool 57% 66% 13 21
Channel 49% 71% 18 30
Courser of Kruphix 60% 73% 14 21
Den Protector 86% 91% 8 9
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn 50% 78% 42 66
Eternal Witness 58% 62% 9 15
Gaea’s Cradle 61% 72% 8 12
Gifts Ungiven 60% 78% 29 42
Lotus Cobra 42% 65% 8 15
Master of the Wild Hunt 53% 58% 5 9
Regrowth 67% 67% 8 12
Rofellos, Llanowar Emissary 47% 73% 18 30
Sakura-Tribe Elder 38% 73% 5 9
Smuggler’s Copter 72% 82% 44 57
Sword of Fire and Ice 49% 62% 10 18
Sylvan Library 62% 71% 10 15
Time Walk 71% 82% 32 42
Ancestral Vision 57% 69% 17 27
Brain Freeze 69% 81% 54 72
High Tide 65% 83% 51 69
Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy // Jace, Telepath Unbound 59% 75% 28 42
Ponder 52% 76% 27 42
Riftwing Cloudskate 55% 73% 21 33
Thing in the Ice // Awoken Horror 71% 82% 16 21
Treasure Cruise 59% 74% 18 27
Wasteland 58% 72% 39 60
Bloodstained Mire 62% 77% 27 39
Concealed Courtyard 63% 70% 14 21
Crucible of Worlds 54% 68% 31 51
Gideon, Ally of Zendikar 79% 88% 30 36
Hypnotic Specter 68% 88% 7 9
Kitchen Finks 62% 71% 10 15
Library of Alexandria 54% 71% 34 54
Lodestone Golem 76% 85% 29 36
Mana Confluence 58% 75% 16 24
Marsh Flats 69% 82% 34 45
Mother of Runes 74% 88% 39 48
Mutavault 81% 86% 15 18
Phyrexian Revoker 66% 82% 31 42
Selfless Spirit 72% 84% 14 18
Silverblade Paladin 75% 87% 17 21
Stoneforge Mystic 64% 79% 15 21
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben 71% 84% 37 48
Tidehollow Sculler 65% 85% 18 24
Academy Ruins 51% 66% 14 24
Arid Mesa 59% 74% 36 54
Bribery 67% 84% 25 33
Burning of Xinye 53% 63% 14 24
Dack Fayden 49% 60% 23 42
Everflowing Chalice 63% 76% 25 36
Goblin Welder 67% 80% 11 15
Kuldotha Forgemaster 49% 60% 13 24
Mountain 55% 73% 148 231
Mox Sapphire 62% 71% 20 30
Myr Battlesphere 56% 77% 30 45
Seething Song 61% 72% 34 51
Simic Signet 57% 66% 13 21
Sundering Titan 44% 63% 21 39
Upheaval 62% 72% 26 39
Volcanic Island 55% 68% 24 39
Wooded Foothills 44% 53% 19 39
Basalt Monolith 52% 68% 18 30
Black Lotus 60% 78% 33 48
Blood Crypt 52% 70% 22 36
Compulsive Research 62% 79% 19 27
Lavaclaw Reaches 40% 60% 18 36
Mulldrifter 64% 78% 17 24
Sensei’s Divining Top 72% 84% 14 18
Steam Vents 64% 76% 46 66
Tezzeret the Seeker 67% 73% 21 30
Ajani Vengeant 39% 57% 10 21
Balance 67% 80% 11 15
Duress 62% 76% 29 42
Elspeth, Knight-Errant 84% 89% 13 15
Gideon of the Trials 81% 86% 15 18
Godless Shrine 64% 79% 15 21
Gruul Signet 56% 68% 26 42
Savannah 84% 89% 13 15
Spirebluff Canal 67% 67% 16 24
Thoughtseize 50% 66% 26 45
Wandering Fumarole 64% 69% 16 24
Chart a Course 72% 82% 37 48
Deceiver Exarch 47% 53% 9 18
Frantic Search 62% 78% 61 87
Impulse 65% 74% 25 36
Lion’s Eye Diamond 64% 78% 49 69
Mana Drain 62% 71% 20 30
Mind’s Desire 61% 76% 45 66
Palinchron 67% 83% 27 36
Repeal 62% 79% 19 27
Scalding Tarn 60% 73% 34 51
Turnabout 59% 78% 39 57
Angel of Sanctions 61% 72% 8 12
Elspeth, Sun’s Champion 77% 83% 12 15
Emeria Angel 75% 80% 7 9
Flickerwisp 71% 82% 16 21
Flooded Strand 65% 79% 43 60
Parallax Wave 53% 58% 5 9
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria 67% 76% 30 42
Ancient Grudge 63% 81% 13 18
Badlands 62% 71% 28 42
Bayou 58% 76% 10 15
Corpse Dance 50% 83% 8 12
Dark Petition 42% 54% 10 21
Faithless Looting 43% 57% 15 30
Garruk Relentless // Garruk, the Veil-Cursed 58% 62% 9 15
Kolaghan’s Command 45% 72% 7 12
Lumbering Falls 67% 67% 8 12
Maelstrom Pulse 53% 58% 5 9
Nature’s Claim 53% 58% 5 9
Oath of Druids 44% 67% 20 36
Pentad Prism 37% 48% 9 21
Sneak Attack 43% 57% 15 30
Taiga 53% 75% 21 33
Misty Rainforest 62% 78% 21 30
Orzhov Signet 52% 61% 17 30
Fiery Confluence 61% 72% 16 24
Gilded Lotus 67% 73% 23 33
Solemn Simulacrum 55% 69% 28 45
Wildfire 63% 70% 12 18
Abbot of Keral Keep 77% 83% 12 15
Abrade 75% 85% 24 30
Chain Lightning 67% 80% 22 30
Eidolon of the Great Revel 59% 74% 6 9
Figure of Destiny 61% 73% 22 33
Fireblast 67% 80% 22 30
Glorybringer 64% 78% 17 24
Imperial Recruiter 47% 53% 6 12
Koth of the Hammer 58% 75% 16 24
Lightning Bolt 64% 73% 37 54
Lightning Strike 78% 84% 17 21
Mishra’s Factory 51% 66% 7 12
Mizzium Mortars 47% 53% 6 12
Mox Ruby 62% 76% 29 42
Runaway Steam-Kin 81% 86% 10 12
Scrapheap Scrounger 73% 77% 9 12
Shrine of Burning Rage 59% 74% 12 18
Sulfuric Vortex 62% 79% 19 27
Young Pyromancer 59% 74% 6 9
Zealous Conscripts 64% 69% 18 27
Zurgo Bellstriker 67% 77% 13 18
Boros Signet 72% 82% 37 48
Condemn 64% 79% 15 21
Inspiring Vantage 59% 75% 22 33
Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker 49% 60% 13 24
Razorverge Thicket 53% 72% 15 24
Sacred Foundry 67% 80% 22 30
Celestial Colonnade 86% 91% 24 27
Dragonlord Atarka 44% 89% 6 9
Enlightened Tutor 75% 80% 7 9
Faith’s Fetters 77% 83% 12 15
Genesis Wave 46% 65% 5 9
Nissa, Worldwaker 58% 88% 11 15
Plateau 66% 84% 27 36
Stirring Wildwood 77% 83% 12 15
Tooth and Nail 40% 65% 11 21
Wrath of God 73% 77% 9 12
Dark Ritual 48% 63% 35 63
Demonic Tutor 67% 83% 18 24
Gitaxian Probe 55% 72% 38 60
Imperial Seal 58% 75% 16 24
Jace Beleren 74% 83% 26 33
Mana Flare 57% 70% 23 36
Tendrils of Agony 70% 78% 20 27
Thousand-Year Storm 70% 82% 25 33
Birds of Paradise 57% 76% 14 21
Botanical Sanctum 63% 70% 14 21
Brainstorm 65% 75% 21 30
Dig Through Time 62% 72% 36 54
Dimir Signet 48% 66% 17 30
Baral, Chief of Compliance 74% 89% 22 27
Mirari’s Wake 53% 73% 19 30
Temple Garden 43% 65% 13 24
Kozilek, Butcher of Truth 46% 65% 15 27
Land Tax 61% 72% 8 12
Griselbrand 40% 60% 9 18
Raging Ravine 53% 81% 16 24
Through the Breach 40% 77% 7 12
Wheel of Fortune 48% 66% 34 60
Bitterblossom 58% 76% 20 30
Burst Lightning 64% 85% 29 39
Creeping Tar Pit 60% 85% 13 18
Daretti, Ingenious Iconoclast 28% 39% 4 12
Lingering Souls 56% 94% 9 12
The Scarab God 34% 49% 5 12
Adanto Vanguard 71% 84% 37 48
Blade Splicer 67% 81% 29 39
Disenchant 67% 67% 8 12
Honor of the Pure 77% 83% 12 15
Legion’s Landing // Adanto, the First Fort 73% 83% 21 27
Path to Exile 70% 83% 39 51
Porcelain Legionnaire 69% 80% 29 39
Soulfire Grand Master 81% 86% 15 18
Spectral Procession 75% 80% 7 9
Sun Titan 75% 80% 7 9
Deranged Hermit 36% 64% 6 12
Goblin Rabblemaster 64% 76% 19 27
Hellrider 58% 75% 16 24
Huntmaster of the Fells // Ravager of the Fells 46% 65% 5 9
Oracle of Mul Daya 41% 59% 15 30
Plow Under 67% 83% 9 12
Shambling Vent 56% 66% 11 18
Stomping Ground 50% 55% 11 21
Frost Titan 67% 83% 9 12
Goblin Electromancer 55% 73% 21 33
Inferno Titan 74% 85% 19 24
Manamorphose 66% 78% 43 60
Yawgmoth’s Will 74% 85% 19 24
Craterhoof Behemoth 35% 54% 8 18
Hangarback Walker 59% 74% 18 27
Harmonize 42% 47% 4 9
Kodama’s Reach 29% 51% 6 15
Winter Orb 53% 58% 5 9
Blackcleave Cliffs 60% 63% 11 18
Yawgmoth’s Bargain 75% 80% 7 9
Emrakul, the Promised End 55% 73% 21 33
Green Sun’s Zenith 45% 75% 9 15
Polukranos, World Eater 59% 74% 6 9
Scavenging Ooze 59% 74% 6 9
Wall of Roots 44% 89% 6 9
Hero of Bladehold 67% 83% 9 12
History of Benalia 68% 88% 7 9
Acidic Slime 36% 64% 6 12
Arcane Artisan 58% 76% 10 15
Seachrome Coast 65% 75% 21 30
Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger 48% 76% 13 21
Hallowed Fountain 69% 75% 28 39
Pestermite 59% 74% 6 9
Ravages of War 64% 76% 19 27
Dauntless Bodyguard 86% 91% 8 9
Kytheon, Hero of Akros // Gideon, Battle-Forged 82% 92% 26 30
Opposition 58% 75% 16 24
Reveillark 60% 73% 14 21
Unexpectedly Absent 81% 86% 15 18
Bazaar of Baghdad 68% 88% 7 9
Fyndhorn Elves 40% 77% 7 12
Grave Titan 40% 54% 7 15
Massacre Wurm 33% 33% 3 9
Ophiomancer 60% 73% 14 21
Overgrown Tomb 51% 66% 7 12
Pyretic Ritual 51% 75% 19 30
Reanimate 46% 65% 10 18
Recurring Nightmare 56% 78% 8 12
Golgari Signet 64% 79% 15 21
Yavimaya Elder 61% 72% 8 12
Brimaz, King of Oreskos 73% 87% 12 15
Collective Brutality 64% 78% 17 24
Oona’s Prowler 49% 71% 9 15
Student of Warfare 64% 76% 19 27
Batterskull 59% 74% 6 9
Expansion // Explosion 81% 86% 10 12
Hydroid Krasis 54% 70% 13 21
Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver 61% 63% 13 21
Glint-Sleeve Siphoner 53% 58% 5 9
Mesmeric Fiend 74% 83% 26 33
Nekrataal 51% 56% 8 15
Phyrexian Arena 38% 51% 8 18
Ravenous Chupacabra 54% 66% 9 15
Thief of Sanity 59% 74% 12 18
Fractured Identity 69% 80% 29 39
Jace, Architect of Thought 75% 80% 7 9
Spellseeker 60% 79% 27 39
Vendilion Clique 63% 75% 27 39
Fire // Ice 67% 77% 13 18
Torrential Gearhulk 60% 73% 14 21
Dire Fleet Daredevil 68% 88% 14 18
Hazoret the Fervent 63% 77% 23 33
Incinerate 58% 88% 11 15
Monastery Swiftspear 67% 77% 13 18
Rekindling Phoenix 86% 91% 8 9
Entomb 47% 78% 15 24
Exhume 49% 71% 9 15
Leovold, Emissary of Trest 59% 74% 6 9
Looter il-Kor 77% 83% 12 15
Makeshift Mannequin 56% 94% 9 12
Shallow Grave 100% 100% 12 12
Negate 59% 74% 6 9
Biogenic Ooze 61% 72% 8 12
Llanowar Elves 42% 47% 4 9
Natural Order 32% 68% 9 18
Noble Hierarch 34% 46% 6 15
Sylvan Caryatid 59% 74% 6 9
Tropical Island 47% 70% 21 36
Whisperwood Elemental 20% 25% 2 9
Darkslick Shores 53% 80% 10 15
Night’s Whisper 64% 88% 16 21
Archangel Avacyn // Avacyn, the Purifier 67% 67% 8 12
Council’s Judgment 81% 86% 15 18
Past in Flames 55% 79% 26 39
Tithe Taker 92% 95% 14 15
Desperate Ritual 67% 80% 11 15
Grim Lavamancer 58% 76% 10 15
Iona, Shield of Emeria 29% 51% 6 15
Sphinx’s Revelation 74% 79% 23 30
Banefire 68% 88% 14 18
Mox Pearl 85% 90% 29 33
Chandra, Torch of Defiance 72% 84% 14 18
Gideon Blackblade 78% 84% 17 21
Thundermaw Hellkite 84% 89% 13 15
Bomat Courier 63% 70% 24 36
Containment Priest 77% 82% 19 24
Fairgrounds Warden 82% 88% 23 27
Recruiter of the Guard 63% 70% 12 18
Goblin Guide 57% 76% 14 21
Jackal Pup 47% 53% 6 12
Avacyn’s Pilgrim 38% 73% 10 18
Elvish Mystic 12% 32% 2 9
Arbor Elf 46% 65% 10 18
Copperline Gorge 52% 81% 12 18
Devoted Druid 67% 77% 13 18
Finale of Devastation 36% 64% 6 12
Needle Spires 67% 83% 9 12
Cabal Ritual 64% 78% 17 24
Incubation Druid 34% 49% 5 12
Lightning Helix 67% 77% 13 18
Tasigur, the Golden Fang 75% 80% 7 9
Urza, Lord High Artificer 72% 75% 11 15
Hallowed Spiritkeeper 75% 80% 7 9
Ramunap Excavator 73% 77% 9 12
Thraben Inspector 76% 87% 22 27
Wrenn and Six 49% 71% 9 15
Brazen Borrower // Petty Theft 82% 88% 23 27
Miscalculation 78% 89% 20 24
Fallen Shinobi 67% 67% 12 18
Force of Negation 73% 77% 9 12
Liliana’s Triumph 38% 73% 5 9
Ultimate Price 45% 72% 7 12
Necromancy 28% 55% 5 12
Putrid Imp 42% 58% 6 12
Teferi, Time Raveler 60% 85% 13 18
Narset, Parter of Veils 73% 77% 9 12
Prismatic Vista 50% 73% 24 39
Golos, Tireless Pilgrim 51% 73% 13 21
Animate Dead 42% 58% 6 12
Buried Alive 27% 62% 4 9
Bolas’s Citadel 72% 75% 11 15
Oko, Thief of Crowns 67% 67% 6 9
Giver of Runes 51% 56% 8 15
Emry, Lurker of the Loch 84% 89% 13 15
Nissa, Who Shakes the World 75% 80% 7 9
Stonecoil Serpent 67% 80% 11 15

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